Penn State has edge in statistics, but Michigan State is playing at home

Penn State is favored by a field goal over Michigan State. Looks about right to us.

Penn State has the statistical edge, but the game is at Spartan Stadium. As we saw on Saturday, home-field advantage is a big deal...

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Statistics in Big Ten games only...

• Scoring Offense
  MSU: 27.3
  PSU: 24.6
  
• Total Offense
  PSU: 384.7
  MSU: 383.1
  
• First Downs
  PSU: 18.7
  MSU: 18.0
  
• Scoring Defense
  PSU: 15.0
  MSU: 25.7
  
• Total Defense
  PSU: 307.0
  MSU: 376.3
  
• Opponents First Downs
  PSU: 17.1
  MSU: 19.1

At first glance it looks like Michigan State has a heck of a passing attack, which makes the potential loss of starting corner A.J. Wallace worrisome.

However, a look behind the numbers tells a different story. The Spartans were lights-out against non-con teams: 318 yards per game, 12 scores, and just one pick.

Things got significantly tougher once Big Ten play began. In conference games MSU plunged to 249 passing yards per game, with a dozen touchdowns against seven interceptions.
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