Biostatistician Ted Gooley's day job involves studying the outcome of clinical trials in stem-cell transplants. Each year around this time, he turns his attention to another statistical conundrum: how best to run a March Madness pool.
Dr. Gooley is one of millions of Americans who participate in the annual ritual of predicting the outcome of the men's college-basketball national-championship tournament, which begins in two weeks. Many make their forecasts as part of a workplace or college-dorm competition for bragging rights and, though technically illegal, for cash. One in five workers surveyed in a new online poll sponsored by CareerBuilder say they have participated in such a contest.